Cash for Carbon: New Climate-Crisis Bill

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Analysis of Cantwell's CLEAR proposal

Thanks Rabbi Waskow,

Here’s the Carbon Tax Center’s analysis of the CLEAR “cap-and-dividend” proposal:

Senators Cantwell (D- WA.) and Collins (R-ME.) introduced the Carbon Limits and Energy for America’s Renewal (CLEAR) Act (12/11/09). While retaining a “cap” and limited trading, CLEAR would avoid the most profound flaws of the Waxman-Markey bill (passed by the House in June) and the Kerry-Boxer bill, now stalled in the Senate. CLEAR would set a floor and ceiling (“collar”) on carbon allowance prices, authorize only “covered entities” to hold allowances and would not allow offsets to be used in place of allowances. Perhaps most noteworthy is CLEAR’s proposal to “recycle” 75% of revenue directly to households, contrasting sharply with the cap-and-trade bills’ give-away of carbon revenue and its equivalent in free allowances to an array of special interests and energy projects. With Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-ME) co-sponsorship, CLEAR begins as a bipartisan proposal.

CLEAR purports to preclude a secondary market (or “derivatives”) in carbon allowances. But analysts are uncertain about whether the bill can prevent large energy users from contracting to hedge against seasonal and cyclical price swings. Also, the low price range of bill — $7 to $21 per ton of CO2 in the initial year, 2012, rising each year at approximately 6% above inflation — is not nearly sufficient to achieve the needed emissions reductions. CTC’s Carbon Tax Impact Model suggests that this price trajectory will only lead to a 7.5% drop in U.S. CO2 emissions from 2005 levels in 2020. Instead of a substantial price signal, the bill relies much more heavily on subsidies for clean-energy investment which would come from the 25% of revenue not returned to households. CLEAR’s goal is emissions reductions of 20% from a 2005 baseline by 2020.

CLEAR’s price collar would make carbon prices more predictable and in that sense the bill is much closer to the “gold standard” of a carbon tax than cap-and-trade proposals. But its $7 – 21 range is wide enough to allow significant volatility that could discourage investment in alternatives and efficiency while generating profits for speculators. Potential volatility combined with CLEAR’s low price mean that its price signal would be “noisy” and small — not the clear upwardly trending price signal that would most strongly encourage low-carbon energy.

Finally, a volatile price makes linkage to international carbon markets (or carbon taxes) needlessly complex or even impossible.

http://www.carbontax.org/progress/carbon-tax-bills/

Posted by James Handley (not verified) on 2/3/2010